Epiphany 17 – Thinking Two Moves Ahead — Why Great Strategy Shifts the Whole System

In business, it’s easy to focus only on the immediate next step in a plan or project. I believe that excellent execution, whether in leadership, marketing, product, or transformation, goes beyond solving today’s problems but thinking about the reactive chain of events that each step triggers.

A strong strategic plan anticipates how actions will ripple, how people will respond, how competitors will adjust, how systems will evolve, and how you may need to act or react to those issues. It’s about thinking not just one step ahead — but two, three, or more.

Look to Go and Maneuver Warfare

Strategy isn’t just about moves. It’s about shaping the conditions that make moves successful.

In the ancient game of Go, strong players don’t waste time-fighting every small skirmish. Instead, they shape the board, control the flow, and set up future advantages. They understand that early moves influence long-term positioning.

In maneuver warfare, the emphasis is not on overpowering the opponent but on creating disruption, maintaining adaptability, and ensuring that logistics keep the entire system moving. A brilliant plan, unsupported by adequate supply chains and reinforcements, is doomed to fail.

Understand Why, Not Just What

Too often, organizations rush to solutions without thoroughly understanding the root cause of a problem. If you don’t address the root cause, any fix is temporary — or worse, it creates new unintended problems.

  • Diagnose the root cause before acting.
  • Ask why the problem arose, not just what needs to be done.
  • Ensure your solution fits the real challenge, not just the visible symptom.

Anticipate System Reactions

Every action triggers reactions from teams, customers, competitors, or even the market. Ignoring these second and third-order effects can leave you vulnerable, no matter how brilliant your initial idea.

  • Map out who will resist, who will amplify, and who will be affected.
  • Consider not only the immediate impacts but also how dynamics will evolve.
  • Prepare strategies for potential responses before taking action.

If you deploy a new product, reduce prices, or take any competitive action in the marketplace, it will trigger some set of actions by competitors and customers. Many companies often assume due to their dominance, everyone will accept it. That may not always be the case; some may accept it, but others will retaliate, try to partner, or even join forces with another competitor to respond forcefully to the situation.

Align the Front and Back

A bold move on the front line is only as strong as the system behind it. In both military and business contexts, logistics — the alignment of resources, support teams, and systems — determines whether success is sustainable.

Ensure that backend teams are aligned with frontline goals.
Ensure operational systems are ready to scale with strategic moves.
Build flexibility into your logistics to adapt as reality unfolds.

In business school, my marketing professor was the West Coast manager for a national burger restaurant. He missed class one day and, in the next session, told us he had been fired from his job. They had developed a regional marketing campaign and had everything ready on the marketing side but did not coordinate the logistics with all the stores and suppliers. His team launched the campaign early, and the local restaurants were caught off guard when people came to redeem the coupons. They quickly ran out of the supplies to make the specialty burger, causing frustration with customers that made the local news. The offer resonated with consumers, as evidenced by the demand. Still, it was ultimately wasted due to a lack of coordination with the backend elements, including insufficient stock and cash registers that were not coded to process the coupon.

Closing Thoughts

When you think two moves ahead, you stop reacting and start shaping. Smart methodical managers balance immediate steps and outcome monitoring with strategic goals and competitive insights, ensuring they can pivot and adjust as the project evolves. You must align your teams, anticipate reactions, and position yourself not just for immediate wins — but for sustained, system-wide success. In business, success relies on fast, adaptive operations supported by robust logistics. It’s not about following rigid plans — it’s about reading conditions and shifting resources to exploit openings and competitor’s weaknesses.